Amazon Prime's Propaganda For NASCAR Metrics

Before we get started, let me give you a little context:

First, it’s clear that I am a new NASCAR fan, but I’m a fan, and I’m all in. I’m confused as to why sports junkies like myself didn’t know enough about the sport to begin with and I want other people to watch so that they can experience the high I’ve experienced over the last few years. 

The second thing you need to know is that my 9-to-5 job is strategic consulting, specifically in audience development, so I am also a data junkie. I’ve spent over 15 years cultivating strategic brand development and growth models based on the current audience (or customers) of my clients, as well as identifying new audiences and customers beyond their current reach. Why is this important? Because analyzing the move to Amazon Prime is critical to the future of NASCAR, in my opinion. People are hyping up the wrong numbers, and there is more to the story than meets the eye.

When it comes to brand analysis, the three key aspects to focus on are clear messaging about your product, consistency in that message, and ease of access to the product. In my opinion, we are already 0 for three even without Amazon in the equation. So yes, Amazon Prime could make or break NASCAR. Despite arguably having the best pre-race and post-race content, it misses the mark because we are focusing on the wrong numbers. Amazon has a history of questionable data decisions in other areas of the business, so excuse me if I'm not convinced to believe everything they are presenting to us. 

When it comes to brand analysis, the three key aspects to focus on are clear messaging about your product, consistency in that message, and ease of access to the product. We need to examine the actual numbers if we want to save or even salvage NASCAR; right now, I’m drowning in the propaganda of vanity metrics and vague messaging. From a professional sense, the fastest way to tank a brand or even a campaign is to hide behind vanity metrics that don’t serve he bottom line but serve the ego of those who made the decision.

When you change the avenue of access, the first metric you want to review carefully is churn. Especially in a situation like NASCAR, you cannot focus on attracting new fans until you address the needs of existing fans. What message does that send to existing fans if you pivot completely? 1. We don’t need you. 2. We have a new product that doesn’t align with you. I’m certain neither of these is true, but that’s the messaging.

If I lose more fans in the primary age group than I gain in another, the gain is obsolete. It means nothing unless you can demonstrate growth over time in that category, rapidly and significantly.

Let’s break this down together:

For the CoCola 600, Prime Video averaged 2.72 million viewers on Sunday night among total viewers (P2+).

• Race coverage on Prime Video peaked at 2.92 million viewers (8:15– 8:29 p.m. ET).
• Among P2+, Sunday’s race ranks as the 3rd most-watched NASCAR Cup Series non-broadcast event of the year.
• Sunday’s audience on Prime Video posted a median age of 55.8, which is more than six years younger than audiences watching NASCAR Cup Series races on linear networks (61.9)

The graphics were prominent: 2.93 is bold, but that's only the peak numbers, and they were for the last 15 minutes of the race. What are the numbers for each hour of the race? Not part of the vanity metric worth releasing. The following statistic, in bold, represents a decrease in the average age, which was 7 years younger than usual. Let’s break that down: in terms of audience development data, we look at 7-10 year windows for age margins. Seven years means little to know change when we are being honest. And last, let’s bring it back to the dreaded churn without the vanity-driven lens: 2.6 million viewers on Prime Video, down 16% versus last year’s race on Fox (3.1 million viewers). A healthy rate of church growth is 2-5%, with 7% being extremely generous for a change of platforms. 16% is anything but healthy.

Any true analyst will tell you, one data set isn't enough to give you the whole picture. So let's look at Nashville, it gets worse.

• Prime Video had a 1.01 rating and 2.06 million viewers for Sunday's NASCAR Cup Series Cracker Barrel 400 at Nashville.
• Last year's race drew 3.24 million viewers on NBC before a weather delay, eventually forcing the conclusion of the event to USA Network, where it drew 2.13 million viewers. 

This portion of the season is the perfect time to welcome new fans and show appreciation to your current ones. You aren’t competing with the NFL, and College football isn’t monopolizing people’s Saturdays either. This is where you break through the noise and introduce yourself. Indeed, not happening on Prime, behind a paywall with anything but ease of access. You cannot "flip" between channels. That sounds so primitive, but it is a legitimate barrier for anyone reviewing entry points for the audience. Being on Prime means you have committed to this race and this race alone when it comes to single-touch point access. Again, to the loyal-legacy fan, it won't matter, but how many of them are left? What percentage of the whole demographic does this represent? 

In my opinion, streaming is not the move to elevate NASCAR. It isolates fans and is not an easy access path to new fans. Changes need to be made, but we have to look at the real numbers without the rose colored glasses provided by NASCAR. If we continue to view and regurgitate Prime’s rinse-and-repeat vanity metrics, expecting unfathomable success, NASCAR is doomed. Until Prime offers a YouTube TV competitive model that mimics network streaming, these numbers will continue to erode. There aren’t enough Earnhardt documentaries in the world that can fix this issue.